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Morgan Gallup Poll on Unemployment

Keywords: comparing proportions.


The following information was dropped in mail boxes in St Lucia, Brisbane, during June 1998 by Roy Morgan Research to advertise the Morgan Gallup Poll:

More Australians expect Unemployment to rise rather
than fall in the New Year but most believe their job is safe.

More Australians expect unemployment to increase (45%, down 2% since July 1997) than to fall (26%, up 1%) in the next 12 months, while 29% (up 1%) expect there will be no change in unemployment or they can't say, the Morgan Gallup Poll finds.

More than three-quarters (77%, up 4%) of Australians who work full or part-time believe their present job is safe, while 21% (down 3%) believe there is a chance they may become unemployed and 2% (down 1%) couldn't say.

The majority (58%, up 6%) of workers feel that if they were to become unemployed they would be able to find a new job fairly quickly. Slightly over a third (36%, down 6%) think it might take longer and 6% (unchanged) either wouldn't look for a new job or couldn't say.

These findings come from a special Morgan Gallup Poll on employment in the year ahead, conducted throughout Australia on November 12/13, 1997. A cross-section of 631 mean and women aged 14 or over were interviewed Australia-wide by telephone.


The data is in the description above.


Gordon Smyth, from a Ray Morgan Research flyer.


Assuming that the July 1997 survey was the same size as the November survey, is there any evidence of a change in opinion in Australia between July and November 1997?

Based on the size of the November survey, can we be confident more Australians expect unemployment to rise that to fall (i.e., is 45% versus 26% good evidence)?

Can we be confident that a most Australians think they could find a new job quickly if necessary (i.e., is 58% of the survey enough to establish a majority in the population)?



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